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Stop Epidemics

Pills for antiretroviral treatment of HIV/AIDS in the hand of an infected woman in Botswana
Pie chart: 4.5% of world population affected (294 millions) Bar chart: 4.3 million deaths per year, over 100 million lives at risk Steady/negative trend

Human health is largely affected by epidemics. Malnutrition increases the risk of diseases and deaths that are caused by them. Epidemics constrain workforce and development.

Affected people and foundations of life: About 33 million (30-36 million) people suffered from HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)/AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) in 2007, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The portion of women has remained stable at 50% worldwide for the last years. Circa 15 million children have lost one or both parents to AIDS. (UNAIDS [Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS] 2008, 16, 35, 214 and 218.)
  About 14.4 million people were ill from tuberculosis in 2006, 9.16 million of them were new cases (WHO [World Health Organization] 2008b, 19).
  Additionally there were 247 million (189-327 million) occurrences of malaria in 2006 (WHO 2008c, 10). Africa is affected the most.
  Furthermore, there are risks to be contained, like resistant bacteria or viruses and new diseases like SARS (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and avian influenza. These global risks are characterized by a very large potential of damage as well as uncertainty about the probabilities of occurrence (WBGU [German Advisory Council on Global Change] 1998, 62).

Deaths:

Loss of healthy life-years:

Targets/goals: Trends: 0/
AIDS, Malaria (and TB [tuberculosis]), with regard to 2015: To have, by then, halted, and begun to reverse, the spread of HIV/AIDS, the scourge of malaria and other major diseases that afflict humanity (Millennium Target: UN [United Nations] 2000, § 19.4) The increase of people affected by HIV/AIDS has been slowed down by huge efforts, but is still not halted. However, the numbers of new infections and deaths have already been declining since 2001. (UNAIDS 2008, 32 and 35.)
TB prevalence rate (cases per population) is on the decline, already meeting the Millennium target. But the number of new cases still continued to rise in 2006. (WHO 2008b, 1, 3 and 33; UN 2008, 34.).
Regarding malaria no summarizing trend data available, but some data may suggest a decline in recent years (WHO 2008c, vii [roman 7], x [roman 10]).
TB (more ambitious target): to halve prevalence and deaths from 1990 to 2015 (Stop TB Partnership 2008) TB prevalence and death rates have started to fall, but are not on track yet to reach these targets (WHO 2008b, 1, 3 and 34; UN 2008, 34).
TB (additional target): by 2050, to eliminate TB as a global public health problem (global incidence less than 1 per million population; Stop TB Partnership 2008) -
Malaria (more ambitious targets): reducing malaria cases and deaths per capita by at least 50% between 2000 and 2010, and by at least 75% between 2005 and 2015 (adopted by the WHO Assembly 2005: WHO 2008c, viii [roman 8]) In some countries malaria cases have halved until 2007, but at the global level trends are not on track (WHO 2008c, vii, x).

Targets on treatment see under measures below.

Measures:


Annotations

For numeric names the short scale is used:
1 billion = one thousand million = 109 = 1 000 000 000

DALYs: Disability-adjusted life years.
One DALY represents the loss of one year of equivalent full health. DALYs are the sum of the years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) in the population and the years lost due to disability (YLD) for incident cases of the health condition. (WHO 2004, 95f.)

Sources

Draft (2008)

This draft is to be reviewed by experts. Your hints are welcome, please use the contact form.

Photo credit: © WHO/Eric Miller


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